Strategic Competition > Global Engagement
U.S. - Taiwan Relations
Preserving Peace, Upholding Principles, and Preventing Provocation
Kennedy meeting with Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian in 2005.
Mark Kennedy visited Taiwan once in 2015
Strategic Framing
- Taiwan sits at the nexus of the 21st century’s most volatile geopolitical fault line. As a vibrant democracy under increasing authoritarian pressure, Taiwan represents both a frontline of strategic competition and a symbol of democratic resilience.
- For the United States, the challenge is not only deterring Chinese aggression—but doing so without emboldening actions, such as a unilateral declaration of independence by Taiwan, that could provoke a military response from Beijing.
- This is a high-wire act of diplomacy and deterrence. Ambiguity has served as a stabilizing force, but growing tensions now demand more strategic clarity, backed by bipartisan resolve and measured engagement.
- The U.S.–Taiwan relationship must be strengthened in ways that preserve peace, uphold democratic values, and maintain the status quo as the most prudent path to stability.
Taiwan’s Strategic Importance
- Geopolitical: Taiwan is the centerpiece of the first island chain and a critical counterweight to Chinese naval expansion.
- Economic: Taiwan is a global semiconductor powerhouse, producing over 60% of the world’s chips and over 90% of advanced chips, vital to global supply chains and U.S. national security.
- Ideological: Taiwan’s democratic system—thriving despite constant pressure—represents the freedoms authoritarian systems seek to suppress.
U.S. Commitments and Policy Foundations
The U.S. approach is rooted in longstanding policy:
- The Taiwan Relations Act (1979): Guarantees defensive support and a U.S. capacity to deter coercion.
- The Six Assurances (1982): Reaffirms no limitations on arms sales or mediation between Beijing and Taipei.
- The One China Policy (not to be confused with China's “One China Principle”): Recognizes—but does not endorse—Beijing’s claim, while opposing unilateral changes to the status quo by either side.
The U.S. opposes both Chinese aggression and unilateral moves toward independence by Taiwan that could destabilize the region.
Strategic Engagement Without Strategic Escalation
- Security Cooperation: Continued arms sales and military dialogues enhance Taiwan’s capacity to defend itself, while reinforcing deterrence without promoting adventurism.
- Economic Ties: Deeper technology collaboration, especially on semiconductors, aligns economic interests while reducing global dependence on China.
- Democratic Solidarity: Support for Taiwan’s international dignity and informal diplomacy reinforces values-based engagement without crossing red lines.
Balancing Deterrence and Restraint
- China’s growing military provocations—including frequent airspace incursions and joint force exercises—demand a credible U.S. response.
- At the same time, American messaging must be carefully calibrated to avoid misinterpretation in Taipei that could encourage a unilateral declaration of independence.
- Maintaining the status quo—a peaceful, prosperous, self-governing Taiwan without formal independence—is the most effective way to prevent war.
Closing Reflection
The U.S.–Taiwan relationship is a test of strategic maturity. It requires balancing deterrence with diplomacy, solidarity with restraint, and moral clarity with geopolitical realism. The goal is not to provoke conflict, but to prevent it—by preserving a space where democracy can thrive without inviting disaster.
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